SNF Eagles vs. Chiefs Week 11 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Monday Night Football game. In Week 11, that game features the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Philadelphia Eagles at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. This is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, which saw the Chiefs earning a 38-35 victory. That game was an incredible battle between two elite squads, and these teams could potentially be on a collision course for another Super Bowl matchup. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Eagles vs. Chiefs preview, picks and player props.
How To Watch Eagles vs. Chiefs
Date: Monday, November 20
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Eagles vs. Chiefs Spread
This is the most anticipated regular season matchup of the entire NFL season, and both teams will be coming into this one off a bye week. That means that these teams should be well rested and ready to go for this one, which only makes it more exciting. It isn’t outrageous to think that these two teams will meet in the Super Bowl once again this year, which is yet another thing that adds to the drama surrounding this game. However, I do think the Chiefs are in a bit better shape in terms of long-term outlook, and I also like their chances of winning and covering here.
While the Eagles are currently 8-1 on the season, the team is only ranked ninth in the league in Total DVOA. And a big part of that is the Eagles being down at 19th in the league in Defensive DVOA. The bye week likely gave Philadelphia some time to clean things up on that side of the ball. But Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are capable of making great defenses look bad. So, he should be able to do the same against an average — or even below average — one. I also imagine that Kansas City spent some of the extra time figuring things out at the wide receiver position. Nobody from that group has stepped up this year, but maybe the Chiefs will finally turn to rookie Rashee Rice a bit more.
As for the Eagles offense, things have mostly looked good this season. However, they haven’t been quite as good on that side of the ball as they were last year. And that small difference might make a big difference in this specific matchup. The Chiefs are third in the league in Defensive DVOA and will feel good about their chances of stalling Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in the passing game. And the fact that this is a road game won’t help Philadelphia. Kansas City isn’t great against the run, but the extra adrenaline of playing at home could help quite a bit.
It’s also just hard to ignore that the Chiefs are 12-4 straight-up when coming off a bye week under Andy Reid. The Eagles have been great in that regard under Nick Sirianni, but the sample size is a lot smaller. Kansas City is also 41-20-1 against the spread in games with lines of +3 to -3 under Reid. They tend to be reliable when the games are expected to be tight.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Total
These teams combined to score 73 points in last year’s Super Bowl, but I’m not expecting anything remotely close to that here. The Chiefs actually come into this game after having gone Under in five consecutive games. They have been playing mostly low-scoring games this year, which has a lot to do with their excellent defense. And the Under is actually 5-1-1 in the seven games the Eagles have played against teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or higher under head coach Nick Sirianni. So, games against elite competition usually end up turning into slugfests for Philadelphia.
It’s also expected to be chilly and raining when this one kicks off, so it’ll be hard for the passing games to get going the way they’d like. So, I’d expect both of these teams to run often and try to avoid mistakes.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Player Props
Isiah Pacheco Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts
I just mentioned that the weather is likely to be lousy for this game, so I like the idea of taking Pacheco to run the ball at least 14 times. Kansas City isn’t going to abandon the passing game or anything, but the team isn’t going to take unnecessary risks here. The Chiefs have the better defense and home-field advantage, so establishing the running game is important. And Pacheco has actually hit this mark in five games this season. So, it’s not like a game with a bigger workload would be out of the ordinary. I also like that this is going off at plus-money odds in some places.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Prediction
I’m not in love with anything in this game, but I’d take the Chiefs if I had to play something. I just trust Reid to have his team ready after the bye, especially with this being a home game. And I like Steve Spagnuolo’s chances of coming up with a good plan to stop the Eagles in this one.
Bet: Chiefs -2.5
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Eagles vs. Chiefs!