Ahead of this weekend’s slate, we’re set to provide a pair of English Premier League predictions for Matchday 28.
Because of the FA Cup, bettors have a limited, six-match slate to pick from in the market. Headlining the weekend action is Chelsea vs. Everton before Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace on Sunday.
Elsewhere, Wolves welcome Leeds United, Tottenham travels to Southampton and Brentford hosts Leicester City.
But, which games and markets offer bettors the best value?
Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.
Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115)
When these sides met on Matchday 1, the Brentford offense was the better of the two and came closer to deserving two goals. Now, they get a chance to replicate that result against a poor Leicester City defense.
To date, Leicester City is allowing 1.69 non-penalty xGOT per 90 minutes when playing away from home and has seen their opponent score two or more goals in nine of those 13 matches.
If you look at expected goals instead of xGOT — the former is generally worth less — bettors will find Leicester is the worst road defense in the league and has held only two opponents, Everton and Bournemouth, under 1.4 xG, per fbref.com.
Brentford has bossed weaker competition at home this season. Against non-Big Six sides, the Bees are generating 1.87 xGOT per 90 minutes and 1.37 non-penalty xGOT per 90.
Add in that Brentford own the best set piece offense in the league and Leicester own the worst set piece defense and I’ll back this to -125.
Chelsea 1H Moneyline (+100) vs. Everton
The Blues have struggled to win first halves over the course of the season, but have improved of late.
They’re coming off a first half win on the road against Leicester City and have cashed this market in three home first halves this season, two of which came against sides in the relegation battle.
But, it’s how bad Everton have played in the first half, particularly away from home, that leads me to play Chelsea. So far this season, Everton have a -7.44 non-penalty xGOT differential in 13 road fixtures or a -0.57 non-penalty xGOT differential per 90 minutes.
Additionally, if you look at Everton’s results against comparable competition to Chelsea, they’re even worse in the first half. Through five road fixtures against Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham and Newcastle United, Everton are 0-4-1 (W-L-D) in the first 45 minutes.
Across the entire season, the Toffees have lost the first half in a majority of fixtures.
Thus, if Chelsea are able to bag an early goal, they should hang on to lead at the interval. Back this market at -110 or better.