Eagles vs Cowboys Picks | Sunday Night Football
Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let’s run the format back for Sunday Night Football and find an Eagles vs. Cowboys pick for each side. Be sure to come back every Saturday for picks for the full slate each week.
For now, let’s get into my Eagles vs. Cowboys picks on Sunday night.
Use Action’s BetMGM bonus code for bonus bets before making your Eagles vs. Cowboys pick.
What you need to know:
- Needless to say, this is a monster game. The Cowboys need this to have any real chance at the division and a home game in the playoffs, even the 1-seed, while an Eagles win would keep Philadelphia firmly in control of its 1-seed destiny at the top of the NFC and right the ship after the 49ers loss.
- Dallas was 2.5-point favorites on The Lookahead last week when we played the Cowboys, but Philadelphia’s loss pushed the line past the key number of 3 to the other side at -3.5, a pivotal flip. The total rose from 48 on Sunday to as high as 53 but has now ticked back to around 52.
- Could that Eagles loss and negative momentum provide some value on the line? Teams with at least a 60% win rate coming off a loss by 20 or more are 82-40-1 ATS (67%) over the last couple decades, including an untouchable 40-7 ATS (85%) between Weeks 8 and 15 when we know which teams are good, but before those great teams are resting for the postseason.
- Both teams are relatively healthy, though the Eagles are still looking to get some defensive names back into the lineup. Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert finally makes his return, and his absence has really limited the Eagles’ versatility. Both teams rank in the bottom quartile of the league in DVOA against opposing tight ends.
- The home team has won nine of the last 10 in this rivalry, and these teams have split the home-and-home in eight of the last 10 years. Philadelphia won at home. Dallas’s turn?
How to bet the Eagles:
It’s remarkable the difference between these teams’ first and second halves.
Dallas has consistently been a first-half tem. The Cowboys rank 5th in DVOA in the first half but just 17th in the second half, and the Cowboys are especially deadly in the second quarter. Dallas is 9-3 ATS in the first half compared to just 5-7 for Philadelphia. The Eagles are a second-half team. They’re 9-3 ATS there, and they leap from 20th to 3rd in Offensive DVOA and from 24th to 12th in Defensive DVOA.
The Eagles have come from behind to win over and over this season, and the Cowboys just love to leave the door cracked and let Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott screw it up late. The headlines practically write themselves. At +950, that’s too juicy to not play.
As for the Jalen Hurts anytime TD, that’s basically an auto-play at -130. Hurts has a rushing touchdown in nine of 12 games this year, so that’s a 75% hit rate versus under 57% implied by -130. He has as good a chance to score as anyone in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the weekend. You can play both angles together at FanDuel for +1291 if you like.
How to Bet the Cowboys:
1. CeeDee Lamb 10+ catches 100+ yards SGP (+525, bet365)
2. Dak Prescott over 37.5 pass attempts
3. Cowboys 2Q -0.5
Philadelphia’s defense is the weakest unit on the field, particularly its pass defense. The Eagles defense ranks 21st in DVOA and 24th against the pass, and Dallas’s offense has been on fire with Dak Prescott firing the ball all over the field since the bye week.
The Cowboys’ pass rate over expectation has spiked, and Prescott is averaging 38 pass attempts per game over the last five and had a season-high 44 passes against the Eagles when they played last month. Prescott has been especially deadly on late downs, and Philadelphia’s defense ranks dead last on third downs. For better or for worse, this game will be in the hands of Dak Prescott. Most of his props are priced accordingly, but there’s value simply betting on volume with over 37.5 pass attempts.
Expect plenty of that volume to be directed toward CeeDee Lamb. Philadelphia ranks top three in fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks and receivers. Lamb has seen a huge spike in production since the bye himself as Dallas moves him all over the field. He had 11 catches for 191 yards against the Eagles last month and had 10 catches for 120 yards and two scores in the previous meeting. Philly’s corners simply are no match for Lamb right now, and they’ve allowed more receptions and TDs to receivers than any team.
Lamb’s props are juiced too, but he’s had at least 11 catches and 116 yards in five games already this season. That’s almost half of them, so playing 10+ catches for 100+ yards looks like a great angle at +525, implied 16%. You can sprinkle a 10/150 SGP at +1200 (PointsBet) as an escalator if you like. He’s done that three times too, obviously including the last Eagles game.
The logic for the second quarter Cowboys angle is effectively laid out in the Eagles’ section. Dallas is at its best in the second quarter, and Philly as at its worst.
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My thoughts: CeeDee Lamb 10/100 (+525) and 10/150 (+1200) escalator
No pick on a side is a bummer here, but that’s because I’m already on Dallas -2.5 from The Lookahead line a week ago and I think the line looks about right now that it’s flipped to the other side of the key number. I’m confident the Cowboys are the better team, but Philadelphia is specifically good at the little edges McCarthy always leaves there for the taking, so every point matters.
If you do like Dallas, attacking the futures market is probably a better investment. A win here would very likely make Dak Prescott the MVP favorite by Monday morning. I’ll invest in the game by playing CeeDee Lamb’s props and hope for another huge game since the Eagles just don’t have an answer.
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