With a sky-high 244.5-point total and two teams who love to jack it up from beyond the arc, our NBA betting picks expect plenty of opportunities for Grayson Allen to make 3+ threes and cash a juicy plus-money prop.
The NBA odds are calling for a high-scoring shootout when the Milwaukee Bucks battle the Sacramento Kings on Monday night.
The Over/Under total for this non-conference clash is sitting at 244.5 points – one of the highest totals of the NBA season so far. And if Milwaukee superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is active tonight, that number could climb even higher.
The tall total is warranted considering Sacramento leads the league in points production but also marches out a turnstile defense. The Bucks can fill it up as well, ranked out ninth in scoring.
I break down this Over/Under as well as the spread and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Bucks at Kings on March 13.
Bucks vs Kings best odds
Bucks vs Kings picks and predictions
These clubs rank out No. 4 and No. 7 in both 3-point attempts per game and 3-pointers made, so I expect back-and-forth scoring from the perimeter. That means more looks from beyond the arc and a good chance guard Grayson Allen keeps his 3-point attempts up on Monday night.
Allen has seen his activity from outside peak this month, averaging over seven 3-pointers per game after shooting an average of around five per outing in the first five months of the sked.
He’s fired up nine shots from distance in each of the past two games, hitting just five of those attempts but is knocking down 42% from outside this month and has made three or more triples in four of six games so far in March.
The possible return of Giannis Antetokounmpo could dig into Allen’s touches but the pace of play between these two teams (ranked No. 1 and No. 3 in pace rating since the All-Star break) and the sky-high scoring projections will open up opportunities for more shots to go around.
Allen is averaging 2.4 made 3-pointers since the calendar flipped to 2023 with that output peaking to three per contest this month. His 3-point prop for Monday’s projected shootout is set at 2.5 with the Over priced at +150.
We’ll grab that plus money with a game script and recent resume that calls for three or more 3-pointers from Allen tonight.
My best bet: Grayson Allen Over 2.5 made threes (+155)
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Bucks vs Kings spread analysis
Books opened with Milwaukee as a 1-point road favorite, but this spread has since climbed to -2.5, with the market perhaps tipping the status of Antetokounmpo. He’s listed as questionable after missing the past three games with a hand injury.
Milwaukee is 2-1 SU in those games with the loss coming in overtime against Golden State on Saturday. The Bucks have played well since the All-Star break, with a 7-2 SU mark but they’re just 5-4 ATS in that span and 1-2 ATS without Giannis.
The Kings have also been stellar since the mid-February hiatus and very much shut up doubters who expected the other shoe to drop for this surprise NBA title contender. Sacramento is a league-best 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS since the break, most recently beating Phoenix on the road as a 3.5-point pup this past weekend.
Overall, the Kings own a 37-28-1 ATS record on the season, including a 17-16-1 ATS count inside the Golden 1 Center. The Bucks bring a 17-13-3 ATS road record into Sacramento, part of their overall 37-26-4 ATS count on the season – the best in the Eastern Conference.
Bucks vs Kings Over/Under analysis
This towering total hit the board as low as 241.5 points at some books early Monday morning and has since risen to as high as 244.5 as of Monday 11 a.m. ET. That uptick could be another indication that Antetokounmpo will be active.
This current number is just the 11th NBA Over/Under of 244 points or more this season, with those tallest of totals going just 1-9 O/U so far. Sacramento’s high-scoring ways are responsible for six of those 244+ numbers, with the Kings finishing 1-5 O/U against their biggest totals of the year.
Books have done a good job adjusting to the Kings’ brand of basketball, with Sacramento owning a 33-32-1 O/U mark on the year despite ranking No. 1 in offensive rating and No. 27 in defense. The team is 6-2-1 O/U since the All-Star break but Milwaukee is the stiffest defensive test the Kings have faced in that span.
As for the Bucks’ Over/Under results, Milwaukee is 5-4 O/U in its last nine games and owns a 33-34 O/U count on the season. Milwaukee has picked up its pace of play over those games, with the top-ranked pace rating in the league since the All-Star break – jumping from 100.95 (11th) to 102.97.
Bucks vs Kings betting trend to know
NBA games with totals of 240 points or more have gone 20-35 Over/Under this season – a 64% winning clip for the Under. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Kings.
Bucks vs Kings game info
|Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
|Monday, March 13, 2023
|10:00 p.m. ET
|NBCS-California, Bally Sports Wisconsin